methodology of paddy forecasting (1)
To make predictions there are several methods used. In calculating the forecasting method uses a simple linear regression of rice (straight line). Where in one year made three predictions of rice production, namely:
1. Forecasts Sub Round I (January-April)
2. Forecasts Sub Round II (May-August)
3. Forecasts Sub Round III (September-December)
The division into three sub-rounds are based on the age of rice is estimated at between 3-4 months only, from the time from planting to harvest. Indeed, in making predictions, if the data series of the factors that influence the production is completed, can be used several regresion. Factors – factors that may affect crop production is widespread, the amount of labor, climate, soil fertility, use of fertilizers, seeds, planting methods, the body bullies and so on. Given that the data series are not yet available in full, then use a simple linear regression, where the harvested area is already a resultant of the factors that influence it.
Harvest area is strongly influenced by the final harvest area, so as to estimate the harvested area of each sub-round in 2001 using simple linear regression method, in which the independent variables (independent variables) (X) is the plant area and not the end of the independent variables (variables dependent) (Y) is the area harvested.
Y = a + bX
Plants are widely used as independent variables to estimate the final harvest area in the sub-round to planting before harvesting must be done first. Thus greatly influence the final crop area harvested area, although not everything can be done planting harvesting. To estimate the plant area of the end of each sub-round of estimates used from previous years. After the harvest area is obtained, then do the forecasting for rice production using simple linear regression as predicted at the time of harvest area where harvest area as independent variables and the production of rice as an independent variable.
.: belajar kembali 
Leave a comment