factors that affecting the harvest area

There are several factors that can affect the estimated ups and downs of the harvest area. Among them is the issue of climate, labor and grain prices. Climate influences can cause the occurrence of most agricultural crops or crops that are not optimally so that the results are less than expected. Climate factors are factors that are difficult to handle because it has to do with nature. You can do just that hapening to work towards being more minimal.

The second factor is the problem of manpower in agriculture mainly paddy field rice farming. If the agricultural workforce suffered a decline then will cause reduced the planting so that the area will experience a decrease in the harvest. Fenonema happens is a lot of young workers who are not interested to plunge into the world of agriculture. So the lack of a regeneration of the workforce. This is because the younger workforce is preferred to another, e.g. practicing industrial sectors such as a factory laborer or the service sector with the man power of indonesia (TKI).

methodology of paddy forecasting (1)

To make predictions there are several methods used. In calculating the forecasting method uses a simple linear regression of rice (straight line). Where in one year made three predictions of rice production, namely:

1. Forecasts Sub Round I (January-April)

2. Forecasts Sub Round II (May-August)

3. Forecasts Sub Round III (September-December)

The division into three sub-rounds are based on the age of rice is estimated at between 3-4 months only, from the time from planting to harvest. Indeed, in making predictions, if the data series of the factors that influence the production is completed, can be used several regresion. Factors – factors that may affect crop production is widespread, the amount of labor, climate, soil fertility, use of fertilizers, seeds, planting methods, the body bullies and so on. Given that the data series are not yet available in full, then use a simple linear regression, where the harvested area is already a resultant of the factors that influence it.